Poland acquires AARGM-ER

The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MND) has announced the acquisition of 200 AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missiles – Extended Range (AARGM-ER) to equip its fleet of 32 F-35s, according to a 28th January press release. 

The sale was approved in April 2024 and valued at the time at an estimated $1.275 billion for up to 360 AARGM-ER, as well as the supporting logistics and infrastructure, including dummy training rounds. With the $745 million contract now signed, deliveries are set to begin between 2029 and 2035.

“Today’s agreement marks huge progress in the field of operational capabilities, using the F-35 aircraft in the way it should be done, because an aircraft without appropriate weapons, even the best one, does not constitute an advantage, does not constitute strength and effectiveness,” Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz, said. 

This point is well made by the Deputy Prime Minister, the Royal United Services Institute has highlighted how the UK’s lack of long-range munitions designed to actively engage surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, forces a reliance on Paveway IV guided bombs with a range of around 30 km. So, a lack of proper munitions for the suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) mission like the AARGM-ER or Spear-3, means that advanced aircraft like the F-35 are effectively unable to perform to their fullest potential. 

This fact is seemingly well-known, especially as far as SEAD is concerned, with Australia also confirming an additional investment in the AARGM-ER on the 30th January. An initial investment was announced in August 2023 after the procurement of 63 missiles valued at $506 million was approved in February that year. A further sale of up to 100 missiles was approved in September 2024 with an estimated value of $405 million. The latest investment will drive $405 million (AUD650 million) into Australia’s AARGM-ER procurement with the missiles equipping its EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft. 

The Finnish and Dutch Air Forces have also requested the AARGM-ER. The Finnish request was approved in 2023 and valued at $500 million, covering 150 missiles, while the Dutch request came in at $700 million for 265 missiles. Once both countries have the missiles in service, Europe with have three NATO partners equipped with the F-35 and AARGM-ER, as well as a range of others with earlier variants of the AGM-88.

Tech profile: S-400

This image shows two S-400 transport erector launchers, which are capable of firing a variety of missiles. The S-400 is commonly held up as the threat that drives a lot of NATO’s perceptions around SEAD. Credit: Vitaly V. Kuzmin, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

SEAD is a major challenge for NATO forces in Europe and US forces in the Indo-Pacific. Over time, both Russia and China have developed extensive air and missile defence networks with a plethora of systems offering different capabilities at different ranges. The archetypal Russian system – although it is far from the only system – is the S-400. The S-400 is a long-range SAM system consisting of multiple launchers and radars. It can launch the 40N6E missile, which is thought to have a range up to 380 km against aerial targets. It is well-designed to engage ‘big wing ISR’ – large surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft like the R-135 Rivet Joint signals intelligence aircraft – at those ranges. However, Russian air defence systems have reportedly engaged low-flying Ukrainian jets at ranges exceeding 100 km, which is indicative of technologically advanced radars used for detection. 

There are many radars that can be used with the S-400. In its primary configuration, the system’s lead search and tracking radar is the 91N6E, with a range of 570 km against large targets, falling to a reported 230 km for ballistic missiles travelling at 4,800 m/s. It may be supported by the 96L6E, which is designed to search for low observable targets – possibly including the F-35 – up to a maximum range of 300 km. It is important to note that air defence ranges can be misleading as it is rare for a radar to be able to “see” to the maximum extent of its range, and engagements at the maximum range of the missile have a low probability of successfully finding and hitting the target. 

However, the S-400 is designed to be supported by the fighter aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces carrying the R-27 air-to-air missile, with some variants claiming a range in excess of 150 km, as well as medium and short-range air defence systems like the Buk-M3 and Tor-M2 respectively. Together, its outer detection reach is indicative of the range at which a NATO aircraft might be detected. If that strike package were carrying a Paveway IV, for example, it would potentially have to travel through 540 km of an S-400’s radar illumination and what would presumably be a coordinated response between multiple assets. The range of weapons like the AARGM-ER therefore becomes essential, it allows NATO forces to plan for earlier release of weapons, providing that they have sufficiently accurate targeting data, and leave the area. Hopefully unharmed. 

Calibre comment

Disabling and destroying Russia’s air defence network would be essential in the event of a war between NATO and Russia. It has been an area that has seen a lot of capability loss over the past 30 years, leading to a reliance upon the US for this particular mission. However, the large number of F-35 aircraft in service combined with increasing stocks of munitions like AARGM-ER will improve Europe’s ability to perform that mission independently. This is critical for deterrence and, in the event that deterrence fails, would be essential for NATO to succeed.