Poland and Baltic states to leave Ottawa Treaty
The defence ministers of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have announced that their countries will be withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty which bans the use of anti-personnel mines, according to an 18th March joint press release.
“We believe that in the current security environment it is paramount to provide our defence forces flexibility and freedom of choice to potentially use new weapons systems and solutions to bolster the defence of the Alliance’s vulnerable Eastern Flank,” the Polish press release states. They add that the security situation has deteriorated significantly since the treaty was ratified in 1997.
There are still parliamentary steps that must be taken to enact the withdrawal, and it will come into effect six months after the UN is formally notified. So, the impact will not be immediately felt. However, once adopted, the four states will be able to begin developing and stockpiling anti-personnel mines if they decide that it is useful to do so.
An “assessment has concluded that it is possible to develop anti-personnel landmine production relatively rapidly in Latvia and in other countries of the region,” the Latvian MoD said, adding that its domestic industry had the necessary capabilities.
The Estonian press release however states that, “based on the military assessment of the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, there is no need to adopt previously banned anti-personnel landmines,” indicating the country will not be immediately developing or stockpiling landmines despite its planned withdrawal.
Finland is also considering withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty having watched Russia’s use of infantry assaults in Ukraine. “This infantry issue is one thing that argues for the fact that it’s worth examining the use of anti-personnel mines,” Finland’s Defence Minister, Antti Hakkanen told Reuters in December 2024.
One political party in Finland actually proposed leaving the Ottawa Treaty just two years after joining it in 2014. Jussi Niinistö, a former Finnish defence minister frequently argued against joining the treaty pointing to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. “The political decision by which Finland joined the Ottawa Treaty in 2012 was a strategic mistake devoid of military and economic justifications,” he wrote on his blog in 2014. Parties in Lithuania and Estonia also submitted motions proposing withdrawal from the treaty in 2022.
Landmines, a resurgent market?
A Ukrainian soldier clears a cluster dispenser of PFM-1 anti-personnel mines in 2022. Russia and the US are not signatories to the Ottawa Treaty, and Russia has made extensive use of the PFM-1 which is a small mine designed to maim, rather than kill. Credit: dsns.gov.ua
Lithuania and Estonia have already signed an agreement on developing counter-mobility measures along their border with Russia. In late 2024, Lithuania was anticipating an investment of €600 million over ten years in the project. In September 2024, the Lithuanian MoD announced that it had received Sentry anti-tank mines from Forcit Defence, a Finnish company under a EUR5.9 million contract.
The smart mining system from Forcit is connected through a mesh network and automatically logs the position of each mine using GPS. They can be remotely deactivated allowing friendly vehicles to pass. The company announced a €200 million investment in a new TNT factory in January 2025, indicating that it is anticipating an increase in demand. Forcit’s annual report for 2023 indicates that the revenue of its defence business continued to grow
Other mining systems were also presented at Eurosatory 2024, including the Skorpion 2 counter mobility system from KNDS and Dynamit Nobel, which mounted the Skorpion 2 scatterable anti-tank mine on a Type-X robotic combat vehicle. It is common to pair anti-tank mines with anti-personnel mines, this makes demining ahead of an offensive a dangerous and slow operation.
Calibre comment
Landmines are a simple and effective tool for offensive and defensive operations. They are a key element of Russian doctrine and are to channel an adversary into what they term a ‘fire sack,’ which is essentially an area designated for pre-prepared artillery fire from howitzers and multiple rocket launchers. They were also used along the anticipated withdrawal routes of Chechen forces during Russia’s wars in Chechnya, and for similar purposes by Soviet forces in Afghanistan.
Russian forces in Ukraine have also proven adaptive in their landmine use; often stacking TM-62 anti-tank mines on top of each other to increase the chances of immobilising a vehicle, or burying them deeper than recommended so that a first sweep by a mine clearance vehicle will not trigger them. It is also common to put anti-personnel mines in tree lines or other routes that are likely to be visited by infantry rather than vehicles, this can be done indiscriminately to areas that are expected to be providing shelter for Ukrainians, rather than any confirmed presence. The image at the top of this article shows Ukrainian engineers clearing mines from a treeline in 2014. Mines have always played a role in the Ukraine war.
By Sam Cranny-Evans, published on 19th March, 2025.
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